2021 ARKK 女股神最新回顧 – Volatility, Skepticism, Retail vs. Institutional Investors

在2021年3月5日的“ In Know”中,ARK的CEO / CIO Cathie Wood評估了ARK的研究和預測,顛覆性創新,懷疑態度,對ETF包裝的誤解,波動性以及散戶投資者vs.機構投資者。與往常一樣,她還討論了財政政策,貨幣政策,市場信號,經濟指標等等。ARK的首席執行官兼CIO Cathie Wood,她在這段與冠狀病毒(COVID-19)大流行有關的不確定性期間提供了簡短的回顧。保持健康。下面為大家COPY and PASTE 了下面transcript 比大家參考。

00:10

greetings everyone

00:11

this is kathy wood at arc invest

00:14

well it certainly has been uh an

00:17

exciting week i guess you could call it

00:19

an exciting week it’s given us

00:21

lots of opportunities um we had

00:25

an analyst join us today first day is

00:27

today

00:28

will summerlin he will be uh following

00:31

artificial intelligence

00:33

and partnering with uh max friedrich

00:36

uh on our fintech strategy and uh

00:40

the first words as he was introducing

00:42

himself today to the rest of the firm

00:44

his uh his first words to us were

00:48

it is an exciting time to be alive and

00:51

arc is at the forefront of all of the

00:54

amazing changes taking place out there

00:57

so that was very gratifying to hear

00:59

especially

01:00

after the last few weeks i know there’s

01:03

a lot of fear

01:04

uncertainty and doubt evolving in the

01:07

world out there

01:08

but we’re doing a lot of original

01:11

research we have a five-year

01:13

investment time horizon and we are truly

01:16

excited

01:17

about the opportunities that the last

01:19

few weeks have presented us

01:22

as you know our minimum hurdle rate of

01:25

return for any stock to

01:27

enter our strategies is

01:30

15 at a compound annual rate over five

01:34

years that’s a doubling over five years

01:37

well you can imagine uh what has

01:39

happened over the last few weeks

01:41

market activity alone has taken that

01:44

projected rate and again it’s just a

01:47

projection we could be

01:48

wrong the world could end there i have

01:52

i’m sure i have compliance uh monitoring

01:55

me very carefully when i say this so i

01:57

want to say it correctly

01:59

but according to our projections

02:02

what these last two weeks have done

02:05

is handed those who are averaging in

02:09

to these sorts of strategies any

02:11

innovation strategies

02:14

a gift because we do believe we’re on

02:16

the right side of change

02:18

and disruptive innovation transformative

02:22

innovation is is going to

02:25

deliver exponential growth trajectories

02:29

for many of our companies

02:31

in fact most of them the growth rates

02:34

are

02:36

are enormous and i think some people

02:39

find them unbelievable to give you an

02:42

example

02:43

electric vehicles we expect unit sales

02:47

of electric vehicles

02:48

globally including china to compound

02:52

at an 82 annualized rate during the next

02:55

five years

02:56

uh most people when they see a number

02:59

like that

03:00

they’ll just say i don’t believe it it’s

03:02

not possible

03:03

and the reason for that the reason we

03:05

face that

03:06

uh skepticism often is because

03:09

uh of where the automobile industry is

03:12

right now

03:12

is very mature it’s not growing in fact

03:15

we believe

03:16

it has peaked and uh and that that means

03:20

all cars are in secular decline

03:24

if we are right that we are moving into

03:26

more of a ride sharing

03:28

both human driven and autonomous uh

03:31

during the years ahead

03:33

uh so this idea that electric vehicle

03:36

sales could grow at an 82 annual rate

03:39

just not going to believe it

03:40

uh and uh and so that skepticism

03:46

festers especially i would say among

03:49

institutional investors whose analysts

03:52

on the

03:52

auto sector for example are mostly value

03:56

analysts

03:57

so there are a lot of those disconnects

03:58

in the world

04:00

that are creating great opportunities

04:02

for us and

04:03

uh and so i wanted to say that at the

04:07

outlet because will

04:08

is on to something you know uh there

04:11

are trends evolving here that

04:14

are really fostering a lot of skepticism

04:19

especially the growth rates and the

04:21

sustainability of the growth rates

04:24

but our research based on wright’s law

04:26

gives us an extreme

04:28

sense of confidence that we are on the

04:31

right track

04:32

and that truth will win out uh so

04:35

i’d like to talk a little bit about um

04:38

another source of controversy in the

04:41

last few weeks

04:43

the etf wrapper seems to be somewhat

04:46

misunderstood

04:48

now i have managed money in all kinds of

04:52

wrappers

04:53

and for me the etf wrapper has been

04:57

the easiest and the reason is

05:00

i do not have to deal

05:04

with the flows either inflows or

05:06

outflows

05:07

around any of our strategies

05:11

all i need to do as the portfolio

05:14

manager

05:15

is make investment decisions and so we

05:18

trade around volatility regularly we

05:21

expect

05:22

volatility it’s actually helpful to us

05:25

from a tax efficiency point of view

05:28

as well and so we have an

05:32

ecosystem outside of arc

05:35

now our compliance department and our

05:38

operations department

05:40

are interacting with the ecosystem

05:44

if needs be but what we’ve learned is

05:47

this

05:47

wrapper and the ecosystem around it

05:51

is extremely liquid

05:55

we have not had any difficulties

05:58

whatsoever

05:59

ever with either days when there have

06:02

been

06:03

big inflows or big outflows

06:06

and we do see both uh we have

06:10

i have been impressed uh truly impressed

06:14

that uh the etf ecosystem is

06:17

as efficient but our spreads have hardly

06:21

widened at all the spread between the

06:24

bit and the ask which is where you would

06:25

see

06:26

some duress if there were if there were

06:29

[Music]

06:30

bottlenecks in the system we do also get

06:34

uh

06:34

questions about uh our disclosures

06:38

uh at the end of every day well uh we

06:42

have a a transparent we were approved

06:45

as a fully transparent active

06:49

equity etf and there are not many

06:53

uh of us out there and so i know

06:57

what we’re doing again we just have to

06:58

keep educating

07:00

we have to disclose our holdings at the

07:04

end of every day

07:05

and um and so we do but we also go one

07:09

step beyond

07:10

because we know anyone who wants to

07:14

understand our trading

07:15

activity could reverse engineer

07:19

our disclosures at the end of the day

07:21

that are required

07:24

by the regulators

07:27

they could reverse engineer so we we

07:29

figured in the early days especially

07:31

because we wanted

07:33

market makers and authorized

07:34

participants and prospective clients

07:38

to understand what we’re doing so they

07:40

don’t feel

07:41

they’ll be caught flat footed shall we

07:45

say from a trading point of view

07:46

we said we’ll we’ll publish our trade so

07:49

you understand and you’re not going to

07:50

be offsides

07:52

we want this ecosystem to work uh well

07:55

around our strategy and as i said it has

07:59

and i think disclosing uh our our trades

08:02

at the end of every day

08:04

has has become very important to many

08:07

people who uh own uh

08:10

own our strategies participate in um

08:13

our strategies uh but also for others

08:16

who don’t

08:17

uh and you know it’s developed a life of

08:21

its own out there there are youtube

08:22

videos

08:23

and uh and blogs and so forth around it

08:27

and what i think this is doing is

08:29

bringing

08:30

uh the retail investor particularly the

08:33

young retail

08:34

investor that into

08:37

the investment realm in in a healthy way

08:40

they want to understand what

08:43

uh is going on they love transparency

08:47

and so we try to provide as much of that

08:49

as possible

08:51

and the other thing i think uh is going

08:54

on and

08:54

and and i do think this is going on um

08:57

we uh we have noticed uh and uh

09:01

our our intermediaries have noticed that

09:04

uh

09:05

there’s been elevated options activity

09:08

in our funds both uh on the strong days

09:11

and and on the weekdays um

09:14

well that that probably is the case

09:18

and uh here i’m going to to give you a

09:21

sense of

09:22

why i think that’s the case

09:25

i think that there are there is a big

09:28

difference

09:28

between the way institutional investors

09:32

look at investing

09:34

and retail investors i mean we know

09:37

that that the tesla example is a good

09:41

one

09:41

to uh to illustrate the differences

09:45

and i know there was a lot of

09:46

frustration and it seems to have been

09:48

pent up

09:49

uh over many years uh about

09:52

uh tesla and uh and uh you know our

09:56

research on it

09:57

a lot lots of fear uncertainty and doubt

10:00

uh

10:01

with which we had to contend but but we

10:04

thought it was a good thing the

10:06

the the debate uh the the a lot of

10:09

institutions are set up are not set up

10:13

actually to

10:14

analyze a stock like tesla

10:17

they the the and i’m not saying all

10:21

institutions but i’m i’m saying most

10:23

institutions

10:25

the reason for that is after the tech

10:27

and telecom

10:28

bust uh 20 years ago almost to the day

10:32

march 10th

10:33

uh it started 21 years ago um

10:37

and then on top of that the 0809

10:40

uh meltdown in the equity markets and

10:43

the bond markets

10:45

uh there developed a lot of risk

10:48

aversion

10:49

and volatility became a bad word

10:52

uh we have a volatile strategy

10:56

and we use that volatility to our

10:58

benefit trading

10:59

around positions volatility is not a bad

11:03

word

11:04

in a bull market volatility you’ve seen

11:07

you’ve seen what happens in a down

11:10

market

11:12

what has happened is um institutions

11:15

tend to be very benchmark sensitive and

11:19

i’m going to use tesla

11:20

as an example here tesla as you know

11:22

many of you know

11:24

did not enter and enter the benchmarks

11:26

until

11:27

last fall when it was over 500 billion

11:31

dollars in market cap so there was a lot

11:34

of invest there were a lot of investment

11:38

returns

11:39

to have up to that 500 billion and we

11:41

were happy to be there

11:43

and we’re happy that institutions are

11:45

joining us now

11:47

but they’re joining us primarily because

11:49

tesla entered the indexes

11:52

i’m not sure they really are trusting

11:55

this

11:56

and the reason for that is their

11:59

auto analysts tend to follow

12:03

the traditional auto industry

12:07

and the traditional auto industry is

12:10

very mature uh and as i mentioned before

12:14

we think it’s in decline

12:15

um and uh we’re focu we

12:19

are focused on exponential growth

12:21

opportunities

12:22

uh we believe a sub-segment of the auto

12:25

industry

12:26

is going to see exponential growth for

12:28

the first time in a hundred years

12:30

and so that’s our sole focus

12:33

institutions have hired

12:35

analysts to focus on an industry that is

12:38

mature

12:39

and now there’s a transformative

12:42

uh really revolution taking place

12:46

that will alter the auto world

12:49

completely

12:50

there was a lot of skepticism uh the

12:52

auto industry itself didn’t expect

12:54

electric

12:55

electric vehicles to to amount to much

12:58

of

12:59

anything uh for i think they thought it

13:02

wouldn’t take until the mid

13:03

twenties uh well it’s here and

13:07

we we began to invest aggressively

13:11

in the space on that assumption as we

13:13

saw battery pack system cost decline

13:16

as rapidly as they have been declining

13:18

and so uh

13:20

i think um uh that that kind of tug of

13:24

war between

13:25

the traditional backwards-looking

13:28

uh world which is based on benchmarks

13:31

benchmarks uh and certainly the the

13:34

top positions in benchmarks are where

13:37

they are because of past

13:38

performance uh arc is focused

13:41

on the future uh especially on the

13:44

future

13:45

that involves transformation and so

13:49

benchmarks i think have been an

13:51

impediment and

13:53

and and setting up research

13:56

organizations

13:57

in the way they’ve been set up is also

14:00

an impediment to some of the new ideas

14:03

the other

14:04

difference between uh what arc is doing

14:07

what a lot of retail investors focus on

14:11

is uh time horizon uh i know that

14:14

institutional investors are much

14:18

uh more short-term many not all

14:21

uh and uh they’re very focused again on

14:23

the benchmark

14:24

uh so this idea of uh being graded every

14:27

year based on

14:28

how well an analyst or portfolio

14:32

manager did relative to a benchmark is

14:35

quite constraining

14:37

the luxury we have and retail investors

14:40

have

14:40

is retail investors really don’t have

14:43

career risk

14:44

we might have a little bit more of that

14:46

of course given what we do

14:49

but we have a five-year time horizon

14:52

that is a luxury

14:53

that’s a luxury and the difference

14:55

between linear growth

14:57

and exponential growth in the early

14:59

years when

15:00

electric vehicles are at 500 000

15:03

a couple of years in in sales globally

15:06

last year 2.2 million

15:09

in the those early years because the

15:11

bases are so low

15:13

there doesn’t seem to that doesn’t look

15:15

on a graph to be that much difference

15:17

between

15:19

linear growth and exponential growth

15:21

trends

15:23

you give that a few more years and the

15:25

difference

15:26

is quite surprising i mentioned that 82

15:29

percent growth rate

15:30

we really believe that’s going to happen

15:32

especially now that china

15:34

is pushing hard i don’t think

15:37

traditional auto analysts still

15:39

believe that could happen the third

15:42

issue that institutions are grappling

15:44

with that we are not and that retail

15:46

investors are not

15:48

is that the analysts are very siloed

15:52

and specialized by industry

15:55

or sub industry or sub sub industry

15:59

that is just how the market evolved over

16:02

over the last few years

16:03

the problem with that is these

16:06

new innovation platforms around which

16:09

arc has

16:10

centered its research and investing

16:14

are cross sector in their ramifications

16:18

so it is the platforms that we have

16:21

centered

16:22

our analysts responsibilities on

16:25

and they are generalists and all of them

16:28

are comfortable with

16:29

technology very comfortable

16:33

healthcare oriented analysts very

16:35

comfortable industrial

16:37

you do not find that in uh in

16:40

institutions and i

16:41

truly believe that research departments

16:45

in institutions will have to reorganize

16:48

in order to invest successfully

16:52

or optimally shall i say uh in

16:55

innovation going forward

16:57

our analyst responsibilities as i said

16:59

broken out by

17:00

uh platform and technology and uh

17:04

and and the reason that’s becoming more

17:06

important

17:08

is because the platforms are are

17:11

converging

17:12

so it’s getting even more complicated

17:14

autonomous taxi networks

17:16

uh involved three of our platforms um

17:19

and you’ve heard me say this before but

17:22

some of you may not

17:23

uh autonomous vehicles are robots

17:27

that’s one of our platforms robotics

17:30

they will be electric so energy storage

17:34

battery pack systems another one of the

17:36

platforms evolving out there

17:39

and they will be powered by artificial

17:41

intelligence

17:42

another one of our platforms uh it is

17:45

very

17:46

difficult in a traditional institution

17:49

which is very siloed

17:51

to have analysts collaborate

17:54

uh in that way they haven’t been set up

17:56

to collaborate

17:57

our analysts are all about collaborating

18:00

so the world

18:01

is changing we set up arc

18:05

to accommodate uh or acclimate to this

18:08

new world

18:09

and as you know we are sharing our

18:12

research

18:14

on social media so that we can engage

18:16

with and become

18:18

a part of the communities that are

18:21

innovating

18:22

so we’re we are receiving insights i

18:25

believe because we’re willing to share

18:27

our research

18:28

we’re receiving research insights about

18:31

our research

18:32

from those uh in the field are we making

18:35

incorrect assumptions

18:37

that would be good to know early in an

18:40

exponential growth trajectory because if

18:43

you make an

18:44

incorrect uh assumption

18:47

in the early stages of investing

18:50

an exponential growth trend and you

18:53

carry that mistake out

18:54

you can make big mistakes so just wanted

18:57

to

18:58

share a little bit why the disconnect

19:00

between

19:01

um traditional institutions and perhaps

19:04

what we’re doing

19:05

and by the way how we complement what

19:07

they’re doing

19:08

we think that uh because of their focus

19:11

on benchmarks which is more

19:13

about what has happened historically

19:15

they are

19:16

they’re uh the risk of the the

19:19

companies in their portfolios being

19:21

disrupted

19:22

by the tradition by the new uh

19:25

technologies

19:27

is is going to cause

19:30

them to or their portfolios to

19:33

populate increasingly we believe with

19:36

value traps so we’re a good hedge

19:39

against the broad-based benchmarks out

19:42

there

19:43

um so as will said yes

19:46

it’s exciting to be alive and we’re

19:49

as excited as ever about uh

19:53

everything we’re doing the last few

19:55

weeks

19:56

hasn’t done anything except increase

20:00

uh the the returns that we expect

20:03

uh from each of our stocks to the extent

20:06

they’ve come down

20:07

it’s only the market that has changed

20:10

that

20:11

uh because a five-year investment time

20:13

horizon

20:14

um uh you know doesn’t that the the

20:17

research

20:18

doesn’t change we haven’t seen anything

20:21

to change

20:22

our research assumptions or conclusions

20:25

in fact during periods of turmoil

20:28

and elevated risk and fear fear

20:32

uncertainty and doubt

20:33

innovation actually gains more traction

20:36

faster the coronavirus was

20:40

the best example i’ve ever seen of it

20:42

but even markets like

20:43

uh today will since we’re still in

20:47

a period of heightened risk around the

20:49

coronavirus

20:50

will probably uh encourage decision

20:54

makers who were

20:55

maybe on the fence about a new

20:56

technology to jump off and just say okay

20:59

let’s go so i i am never

21:02

uh afraid of uh times like this

21:05

and just to address one other question

21:08

this bubble question we are not in a

21:11

bubble

21:12

although compliance would have me say i

21:14

do not believe we are in a bubble

21:16

uh rightly is is because of

21:20

how many uh how many questions we get

21:24

about being in a bubble and uh

21:27

and how much fear there is that we’re in

21:30

a bubble

21:31

is because the seeds of what um

21:35

we believe will happen during the next

21:38

five years so

21:39

these five innovation platforms

21:41

involving 14 to technologies

21:43

the seeds for all of them were planted

21:46

more than 20 years ago in the tekken

21:49

telecom

21:50

bubble and even before that so the pc

21:52

and the internet together

21:55

and then the internet of course the

21:57

bubble uh

21:59

caused a rush of capital into

22:02

what in they were actually the dream at

22:05

the time the dream was right

22:07

uh it was just 20 to 25 years too early

22:11

amazon may be being an exception an

22:13

important one and showing the way

22:16

and so therefore we’re in the period of

22:20

reality

22:21

the seeds are beginning to flourish we

22:24

are ready for prime time that is what we

22:26

truly believe

22:28

and uh so this notion of a bubble i

22:30

think is born

22:31

once again out of the benchmark

22:34

sensitivity and

22:36

backwards looking nature of a lot of

22:39

institutional investors out there uh so

22:42

the other thing i’ll say about this is

22:44

what they should be worried about

22:47

uh is is not our strategies

22:50

or innovation based strategies they

22:53

should be worried

22:54

about their strategies because the other

22:58

side of disruptive innovation

23:00

is creative destruction and when we’re

23:02

talking about the s p

23:04

500 we think creative destruction

23:07

is going to impact nearly 50 percent

23:10

of the s p 500 and and that

23:13

and that we measure um in two ways

23:17

by uh looking at the fixed assets

23:20

out of there that will become stranded

23:23

and there are hundreds of billions if

23:25

not trillions

23:26

of fixed assets out there that will be

23:28

stranded

23:29

and of course we also look at the market

23:32

cap exposure

23:33

in those groups i’m going to fly by

23:36

now the usual drill

23:39

which is monetary policy fiscal policy

23:42

uh

23:43

economics and uh markets

23:48

because i did uh give uh or i did uh

23:51

speak about these uh things last week

23:54

but but a few things did happen this

23:55

week

23:56

um uh chairman powell of the federal

23:59

reserve

24:00

uh i guess in a wall street journal

24:02

article

24:03

was not forceful enough according to

24:05

investors in saying

24:07

that we are going to draw keep interest

24:09

rates down at all costs

24:11

i think a lot of investors wanted to

24:14

to hear uh him say yes we’re going to

24:17

try and

24:18

control the yield curve well by the way

24:20

that that really has never worked in our

24:22

country so i don’t know why investors

24:24

would think

24:25

uh that it would work this time uh

24:28

but and he um he did note uh

24:32

the disorderly market although i think

24:35

a lot of people uh misinterpreted uh

24:38

some of what he said um we believe

24:42

that interest rates going up and and it

24:44

has been a shock when you think about it

24:46

uh uh going from uh one percent to 1.5

24:50

on the 10-year treasury uh in the span

24:53

of a few months

24:55

is like an a tsunami through the bond

24:58

market right

25:00

that’s a 50 increase in yields this is

25:03

crazy talk

25:04

in in the um in the bond world but it’s

25:06

happening

25:07

and i think there’s a lot of confusion

25:10

and

25:10

risk aversion which has uh spilled into

25:13

the equity markets

25:15

we’ll take the other side of that trade

25:17

interest rates going

25:18

up long-term interest rates uh i

25:22

we believe are suggesting that

25:25

real growth is going to pick up

25:29

now i know there’s an inflow inflation

25:30

component there

25:32

and we are going to see the base effect

25:34

of last year’s

25:35

drop in prices during the coronavirus

25:38

so we could see the cpi in the three to

25:41

four percent

25:42

range it will be temporary and we do

25:45

believe that

25:46

deflationary forces associated with um

25:50

with uh disruptive innovation and

25:53

they’re massively deflationary

25:56

combined with the deflationary forces

25:59

of those companies who are going to be

26:02

put in harm’s way

26:04

by this disruptive innovation and who

26:06

have

26:07

leveraged up too much historically

26:10

usually to cater to short-term uh

26:13

oriented shareholders and to buy back

26:16

their stock

26:18

uh not invest enough in innovation they

26:21

are going to have to cut prices

26:23

ultimately

26:24

in order to uh in order to service

26:27

sell goods and service their debt so i

26:30

think those two forces

26:31

are going to combine now this isn’t

26:34

today or tomorrow we think that today

26:37

part is

26:38

the deflationary under current

26:40

associated with innovation

26:42

uh but we do believe that as

26:45

those forces come in and disrupt the

26:47

traditional world order

26:48

this other source of deflation is going

26:50

to occur

26:52

the one deflationary force is good

26:55

deflation and will

26:56

spur growth the other uh the other

27:00

force is deflationary and bad

27:04

in that it will probably lead to duress

27:06

and bankruptcies and reorganizations and

27:09

so forth

27:10

so i think there will be a lot of

27:11

confusion out there in the marketplace

27:13

um and so uh keeping your eyes

27:17

and and and portfolios on the right side

27:21

of change

27:22

is going to become very important um

27:25

so fiscal policy

27:29

government spending is is nothing more

27:32

than future

27:33

taxation in one shape in one

27:36

shape or form whether it’s inflation

27:40

which is a regressive tax

27:42

whether it’s outright taxation which

27:45

this administration

27:48

seems to be veering towards

27:51

this is not good capital gains taxes

27:55

corporate taxes

27:56

tax rates going up i think

28:00

it shouldn’t surprise the market uh the

28:02

the fiscal policy the fiscal stimulus

28:05

has been in place

28:06

for more than a year now or for about a

28:08

year now

28:09

and um and with that is going to come

28:12

taxation well now rubber is going to

28:15

meet the road we’ll find out what kind

28:17

and but i will say the closer we get

28:21

to next year the lower the odds of some

28:26

very harmful taxes because we’ll be

28:28

looking into a congressional election

28:30

year

28:31

and um the house is very close in terms

28:35

of the number of democrats

28:37

and uh the number of republicans uh

28:40

nonetheless i can’t i ca

28:42

i can tell you uh that’s not good news

28:45

we don’t have our rose-colored glasses

28:47

on there in fact we never have

28:48

rose-colored glasses on

28:50

uh contrary to what some might think

28:53

uh and then on the economy we did get

28:55

the uh employment report today

28:58

uh the employment report was a very good

29:00

one much stronger than expected from a

29:02

headline point of view

29:04

again looking into the guts of it uh

29:06

there was an offset there was a big

29:08

offset

29:08

the average week work week dropped

29:12

by 0.9 percent uh so that’s

29:15

month to month um annual and that of

29:18

course has a big impact on

29:20

income so we think the two pretty much

29:23

wash each other out and

29:28

we also think one of the things that’s

29:30

happening here

29:31

is especially in leisure and hospitality

29:35

a lot of people would not show up for

29:36

work because they were being paid

29:38

by the government not to show up for

29:41

work effectively

29:42

and so maybe some of uh them are going

29:46

back to work uh that’s a source of the

29:49

employment gains and

29:50

and and leisure and hospitality was the

29:52

biggest one

29:54

um and those uh therefore the people who

29:57

had been picking up on their shifts they

29:59

may

30:00

they may be taking a lower work week now

30:04

we still think we’re in a v-shaped

30:05

recovery this this

30:07

report does nothing to suggest otherwise

30:11

inflation if you look at the wages in

30:14

the report

30:15

quiescent 0.2 percent in line with

30:18

expectations no change there

30:21

interest rates have gone up uh this week

30:23

i think that’s a manifestation of

30:25

growth uh that’s revving up and is going

30:28

to gain more momentum as the vaccine

30:30

spreads and uh i think that’s going to

30:33

be great for profits we think

30:35

profits i used to say they’d uh end

30:39

20 and 21 at a 200

30:42

rate for the s p 500 uh now we’re

30:45

thinking it could average that for the s

30:47

p 500 so uh the market on this year

30:50

is selling at 19 times uh if you start

30:53

looking into next year which we will

30:55

starting

30:56

june that’s how the market cycle tends

30:57

to work it’s

30:59

even um less expensive than that

31:03

so now one of the things that

31:07

a lot of investors say well interest

31:10

rates have gone

31:10

up of course this is a killer for your

31:13

strategy

31:14

i don’t think the markets ever priced in

31:17

uh

31:17

interest rates at 0.5 on the 10-year

31:20

treasury

31:21

or today 1.5 i think that the market

31:25

uh and we i went through this in a

31:26

previous uh

31:28

video the market has been assuming that

31:31

interest rates would normalize somewhere

31:34

in the four four percent uh or or even

31:37

five percent range

31:39

uh and that’s how taking the inverse of

31:41

that

31:42

uh uh we we got to sort of a

31:45

normalized pe in the 20 to 25 range

31:48

couldn’t get through there uh one over

31:51

four percent

31:52

uh is 25 one over five percent is 20.

31:55

uh so we don’t think the market has uh

31:58

priced any of these low interest rates

32:00

in and so to say that

32:03

these strategies should uh go down

32:06

um because of interest rates we just

32:09

don’t buy

32:11

and then in terms of what’s happening in

32:13

the markets today

32:14

let’s address the equity market there’s

32:16

a a

32:17

big rotation taking place it’s moving

32:20

from growth

32:21

into value now this started in the

32:24

fourth quarter

32:25

and the surprise to us is that our

32:26

strategy had held up

32:28

as well as it did until the last two

32:32

weeks

32:34

and we were beginning to think oh

32:37

maybe maybe they can coexist

32:41

well we don’t think they can coexist but

32:43

what i’m about to say

32:45

might surprise you um if you’re

32:48

the the algorithms out there and and the

32:51

market is highly

32:52

algo driven these days we learn that

32:55

from the coronavirus when

32:56

algos just ripped through the market and

33:00

you know sold stocks that had

33:03

small cash cushions and were in a cash

33:06

burn situation

33:07

and uh many of those stocks uh

33:11

are held solutions to the problems

33:14

uh so you know they were cut by

33:16

two-thirds at that time it made no sense

33:18

made no sense but these algorithms

33:20

if they’re uh if they’re given just two

33:23

uh two variables they’re probably going

33:26

to make a lot of mistakes

33:28

if the variables they’re using today are

33:30

price to book

33:31

and dividend yields then

33:35

then we think that they’re going to be

33:37

very wrong

33:38

because those kinds of value stocks

33:42

uh probably haven’t been investing a

33:44

very very aggressively

33:46

uh to uh become a part of the new world

33:50

and the innovation uh that’s burgeoning

33:53

today

33:53

there are value managers out there very

33:56

good ones

33:56

who understand their biggest risks are

33:59

value

34:00

traps caused by innovation so

34:03

they’re picking their spots very well

34:06

but be careful

34:07

because value we believe is going to

34:11

continue to face massive

34:15

headwinds especially those companies

34:18

that have not invested uh to move into

34:21

the new world

34:22

and even retail many people say well

34:25

can’t possibly hurt retail any more than

34:28

than it already has

34:31

i can tell you that’s not true so if you

34:34

look in the united states

34:35

online retail as a share of total retail

34:38

uh is is roughly 20 now

34:42

it um it it grew at four times the pace

34:47

uh this year or la in the last year as

34:50

it did the prior

34:51

four years so four years into one

34:54

um so it’s close to 20 percent

34:57

if you look at s-curves where does the

35:00

sweet spot occur

35:02

it starts happening in the 10 market

35:05

share

35:05

15 20 and then there’s the takeoff

35:09

and uh given the coronavirus now we’re

35:12

all much more comfortable

35:13

shopping online there were some who just

35:16

wouldn’t do it before they they had too

35:18

much of a habit going or something

35:20

that’s changed and so i think anyone who

35:23

thinks we’re going back

35:25

back in time is mistaken and of course

35:28

retail financial services energy energy

35:31

this

35:32

uh increase in energy that’s almost what

35:34

makes me feel good about what’s going on

35:37

if you look uh year-to-date energy

35:40

stocks are up 37 and a half percent and

35:43

financials

35:43

up 13. much of that occurred in the last

35:46

month

35:47

uh 22 increase in energy just in the

35:50

last month

35:51

and 8 in financials so that

35:54

accelerated appreciation is what has

35:58

caused this

35:59

uh rotation algorithm saying okay

36:02

past is prologue it’s happening faster

36:04

let’s get rid of our growth stocks and

36:06

let’s go into value

36:07

uh the fact that those two sectors are

36:10

at the top of the league tables this

36:12

year and in the last month

36:14

makes me feel good from a couple of

36:16

points of view

36:17

one the bull market has broadened out it

36:20

did not

36:20

narrow into one strategy like the

36:23

internet in the late 80s

36:25

that was a recipe for uh

36:28

the tekken telecom bust that we saw

36:32

so this rotation is healthy a good

36:34

correction shakeout

36:35

is healthy great time to

36:38

average in to strategies you like um

36:42

and i do believe on the other hand that

36:45

energy and financial services

36:47

are going to be two of the most

36:49

disrupted sectors

36:51

thanks to electric vehicles autonomous

36:54

electric vehicles

36:55

and thanks to digital wallets um those

36:58

are two and three

37:01

of the biggest opportunities brewing out

37:04

there so the fact that energy and

37:06

financials are leading

37:08

uh the pack um suggest to me that this

37:11

is not going to be uh long lived

37:14

um i’m happy they’ve had uh such a burst

37:17

and um the the other of course the other

37:22

algo rule here is move from high value

37:25

stocks

37:25

high valuation stocks to low valuation

37:28

stocks

37:29

so again be careful a lot of low

37:31

valuation stocks are going to

37:33

be set up for disruption and uh then

37:37

the there are rules like okay let’s

37:39

follow the price momentum

37:41

just it’s a momo trade uh and again

37:44

if truth is going to win out that will

37:47

be

37:47

a losing strategy so

37:51

i guess the last thing i’ll leave with

37:53

you is a stat that i

37:55

saw just today it’s cash

37:58

in money market mutual funds

38:01

now cash in money market mutual funds

38:04

soared

38:05

during 0-809 for understandable reasons

38:08

there was so much fear and uh

38:11

and and of course uh that led to sort of

38:15

the deflationary disinflationary

38:18

period i was surprised to see

38:23

that cash in money market mutual funds

38:26

now maybe there’s a technical

38:28

explanation

38:29

but i don’t think it can be this big

38:32

is higher now than it was in 0809

38:37

it had started to come down and now it’s

38:39

moving back up again

38:42

and i think this makes sense because

38:45

as i’ve mentioned many times the

38:47

equities

38:48

have seen outflows pretty consistently

38:50

since 0.809

38:52

there’s been a flurry here and there but

38:55

pretty consistently

38:57

fixed income has seen inflows uh

39:00

cash is part of fixed income these last

39:03

two weeks

39:04

probably has um has renewed the decline

39:07

in equity

39:08

outflows and the uh and yet at the same

39:11

time potentially

39:13

a decline in fixed income

39:16

especially long duration fixed income

39:20

funds what do you do with that you put

39:22

it into cash

39:23

so that’s that’s very interesting the

39:26

cash is building on the sidelines

39:28

and we do believe there

39:31

is going to be an asset

39:36

reallocation you could see it towards

39:40

stocks and bonds away from cash bond

39:44

yields have gone up let’s extend

39:46

our duration so that uh we earn a little

39:49

bit more on our money

39:51

and uh for stocks let’s uh let’s have a

39:54

barbell strategy bonds

39:56

and um and equities

39:59

maybe even higher octane higher octane

40:03

equities so we are

40:07

we’re looking forward to sharing with

40:09

you more videos like this

40:12

and probably focusing more on the

40:15

exponential growth trends just how

40:17

powerful they are out there

40:18

how unstoppable they are if we’re right

40:23

and the cost declines associate

40:25

associated with rights law

40:27

are going to be as powerful as

40:30

as as rights law suggests

40:34

and there then you will see how getting

40:37

on the right

40:38

side of change will be a very good idea

40:42

and not just in investing getting your

40:45

children focused on the the right side

40:49

of change or your grandchildren in terms

40:51

of their education

40:53

and and you know and

40:56

inspiring them i think will become very

40:58

important as well

41:00

so i hope you all have a wonderful

41:03

weekend

41:03

and we will be uh

41:06

updating these videos uh during this

41:10

tumultuous time

41:11

we’re gonna be there for you we want to

41:13

know we want you to know

41:15

what we are thinking as you know we’re

41:17

radically transparent

41:19

we’re not a black box and we want you to

41:23

share this journey with us

41:25

because we think it’s going to be an

41:26

exciting one okay so thank you very much

41:29

have a lovely weekend

41:44

you

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